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Relief Web: East Africa Food Security Alert: December 7, 2018 December 8, 2018

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East Africa Food Security Alert: December 7, 2018

REPORT from Famine Early Warning System NetworkPublished on 07 Dec 2018 —View Original

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Significant October to December rainfall deficits to result in below-average crop and livestock production

Across the Horn of Africa, rainfall performance during the October to December Deyr/short rains season has been significantly below average and erratically distributed. Based on rainfall to date and the NOAA/CPC forecast through December 31, wide areas of Somalia, Kenya, and southern Ethiopia will accumulate large rainfall deficits (Figure 1). Crop production in Somalia and Kenya is expected to be at least 30 percent below average, and pasture and water availability is likely to be well below average throughout the region. As a result, from February to April 2019, more areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) than originally projected. Humanitarians should prepare for an increase in need throughout 2019. Although impacts on food security are unlikely to be as severe as those following the failed 2016 Deyr, five out of the region’s last six rainy seasons have been below average and close monitoring of the impacts on crop and livestock production is critical. Early forecasts also indicate an increased likelihood of a below-average 2019 Gu. If this forecast materializes, additional rapid deterioration in acute food insecurity would be likely.

Although there is roughly an 80 percent chance of an El Niño forming in December, there has been a lack of atmospheric response to warming sea surface temperatures, which is important for the enhanced rainfall typically associated with El Niño events. As a result, seasonal rainfall performance has been worse than originally forecast. In addition to below-average rainfall totals to date, the season began up to 30 days late. Despite a short-term forecast of increased rainfall in early December, below-average crop production and below-average pasture and water availability remain the most likely scenario. Rainfall is forecast to cease before late December as tropical rainfall systems shift southward earlier than normal.

Rainfed cereal production in Somalia is anticipated to be 60 to 70 percent of average, with significantly below-average to failed production in some low potential agropastoral areas. In Kenya, marginal agricultural production is anticipated to be 70 percent of average, though Kitui, Makueni, and Taita-Taveta counties may see larger shortfalls. Due to near normal rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands that has resulted in adequate river water levels, irrigated riverine production in Somalia and southern Ethiopia is likely to be average. Food availability is expected to be most affected in Bay, Bakool, and Togdheer regions in Somalia and in southeastern marginal agricultural areas in Kenya. However, carry-over stocks from the 2018 Gu/long rains harvest are expected to offset below-average Deyr production and stabilize market supply, keeping retail food prices below average through April. This is likely to support food access and enable Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in many livelihood zones, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in several agropastoral areas of Somalia.

In pastoral areas, poor households still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought are most at risk of food consumption gaps. In central and northern Somalia and in Ethiopia’s southwestern Somali and southern Oromia regions, regeneration of pasture and water is well below average, and to a lesser extent in southeastern Somali Region. Earlier-thannormal livestock migration is occurring in Somalia, while increased migration is soon expected in Kenya and southern Ethiopia. Reductions in body conditions, milk yields, and market value are likely beginning in January. Given already below-baseline livestock holdings and below-average income from livestock production, previously anticipated livestock asset recovery is unlikely to be realized. Many households are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and will struggle to meet their minimum food needs without food assistance.

Cumulative Deyr rainfall in Somalia appears similar to previous signature drought years, including 2016. In Kenya, current seasonal totals in the southeastern lowlands place this season as one of the three driest short rains seasons since 1981. Despite the very poor 2018 Deyr performance, deterioration in food security outcomes will be partially mitigated through early 2019 by the impact of the March to May 2018 Gu/long rains season, which resulted in bumper harvests and significantly improved livestock conditions across most of the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, the size of the food insecure population during the first half of 2019 is expected to be larger than previously estimated and additional humanitarian food assistance will be required to prevent food consumption gaps. In addition, early NOAA/CPC forecasts indicate that rainfall during the 2019 Gu is likely to be below average in southern Somalia and southeastern Kenya, though average in the rest of the Horn. Should this forecast come to fruition, historical trends indicate that food security outcomes could rapidly worsen. Therefore, in addition to providing increased assistance during the first part of 2019, national governments and humanitarian partners should prepare for the possibility that a more substantial increase in assistance will be needed later in the year.

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Oromia: East Ethiopia – The forgotten crisis. -Relief Web March 30, 2018

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Odaa OromoooromianeconomistThe UN is silent as over 45 million Oromo people are subjected to genocide

Some observers estimate the number of people who could need humanitarian assistance, displaced people and host communities included, at five to seven million. Very few people are paying attention to this crisis and not enough money has been allocated to it. The basic need for water, food, hygiene and facilities are only just being met. The support provided by funding bodies falls short of what’s needed.

East Ethiopia – The forgotten crisis

Published on 29 Mar 2018 View Original

The grazing regions of Oromia and Somali in southern and eastern Ethiopia have witnessed an escalation in inter-ethnic violence in recent months. Since last September, more than one million people have fled their villages and been displaced to hundreds of reception areas. HI is working to protect the most vulnerable individuals, primarily women and children. Fabrice Vandeputte, HI’s head of mission in Ethiopia, explains the causes of the crisis and how our team is responding.

How did the crisis begin?

For years, ethnic groups have been fighting over natural resources, especially water and pasture land in the regions of Somali and Oromia in southern and eastern Ethiopia. But the conflict has intensified due to long periods of drought and the famines that have followed them. A disagreement over where the border lies between the two regions also recently turned violent, when hundreds of thousands of people from Oromia living in Somali and even in neighboring Somaliland were forcibly removed to Oromia. The Oromia authorities expelled the Somali population in reprisal.

Where are the displaced people living?

More than one million displaced people, mostly women and children, are currently living in 400 reception areas, such as schools and public buildings, but also with families and the like, on a north-south line from the towns of Jigaga to Moyale, on the border between the Somali and Oromia regions. These population movements are putting a lot of pressure on host communities. For example, one woman we met recently has taken in 50 or so members of her close or extended family. You can imagine the day-to-day problems that causes in terms of sanitary facilities, food, and so on.

What are conditions like for displaced people?

They’re exhausted. Think about it: you’re walking down the street, minding your own business, when you’re suddenly surrounded by police who load you onto a vehicle, and transport you hundreds of miles away from your home region. That’s what’s happened to most displaced people. They’ve lost everything they own. A lot of children even get separated from their parents. Many suffer serious psychological distress.

What are NGOs doing?

Unfortunately, very few humanitarian actors are supported by funding bodies or are able to implement emergency programs. NGOs in the field are finding it hard to launch a response because displaced people are spread across lots of different sites, and you have to find them. Organizing aid for people scattered over a large area is not easy.

What is HI doing?

We’ve set up a program to protect women and children. When people are suddenly displaced in large numbers, and forced together in very poor conditions, it leads to tension and violence, and women and children are usually worst affected. There’s also a heightened risk of rape and child trafficking. In Babile and Kersaa, where we work, we’ve formed mobile teams whose job is to spot risky situations and vulnerable individuals and to refer them to the right services, such as health centers, social services, NGOs, and the like. We’re also opening areas for women and children where they can play or get psychosocial support.

How do you think the crisis will develop over the coming months?

Some observers estimate the number of people who could need humanitarian assistance, displaced people and host communities included, at five to seven million. Very few people are paying attention to this crisis and not enough money has been allocated to it. The basic need for water, food, hygiene and facilities are only just being met. The support provided by funding bodies falls short of what’s needed.

Humanity & Inclusion in Ethiopia

Present in the country since 1986, our team is working to provide support to the displaced as well as improve the quality of and access to physical rehabilitation and orthopedic-fitting services, livelihoods facilities for families of children with disabilities, and assistance for refugees and displaced people, and more.

OCHA Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 43 -11 – 24 Dec 2017 December 27, 2017

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Odaa OromooOromianEconomist

Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 43 -11 – 24 Dec 2017

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• OCHA Director of Operations, Mr. John Ging, visited Ethiopia to review the status of the Government-led international humanitarian response to drought and conflictaffected communities, including internally displaced people.

• Humanitarian operators receive emergency logistics induction training to equip national emergency management authorities, staff from different agencies and humanitarian actors, with emergency logistics skills to ensure timely and efficient humanitarian response.

• Regional reports of the November-December national humanitarian needs assessment are currently being compiled. The humanitarian requirements for Ethiopia in 2018 will be determined once the compilation of all the regional reports is completed.

• Ethiopia continues to receive undocumented Ethiopian migrants repatriated from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

OCHA Director of Operations visited Ethiopia

On 12-14 December 2017, Mr. John Ging, OCHA Director of Operations, visited Ethiopia to first-hand review the status of the Government-led international humanitarian response to drought and conflict-affected communities, including internally displaced people. The director met and discussed with the federal and regional Government of Ethiopia, donors, humanitarian agencies and communities affected by drought and conflict. Mr.Ging acknowledged the strong partnership the Government of Ethiopia has established over the years with the Humanitarian Country Team. He said that his visit is “a reflection of the importance of that partnership.”

The director visited Hamaressa IDP camp with over 4,000 people internally displaced by the Oromo-Somali inter-communal disputes. Following a briefing by the East Hararge zone administration about the scale of the crisis, Mr.Ging reassured authorities that he is committed to advocating for appropriate response to the crisis. The zonal authorities requested for urgent food and non-food assistance to IDPs East Hararge zone.

Internally displaced Oromo People at Hamaressa camp, East Hararghe, Oromia State

Meanwhile subsequent intercommunal clashes were reported in West Hararge zone of Oromia region on the 12, 15 and 16 December resulting in more than 60 deaths. OCHA will continue to work with Government to verify access conditions and impact on humanitarian operations. Conflict has left close to 857,000 people displaced throughout the country.

Visit to Somali region

During the meeting with the Somali Regional Government authorities, the region requested Mr.Ging’s advocacy support to scale up the ongoing response, particularly amidst the growing IDP needs and called for development investment in durable solutions for predictable pastoralist needs. The region also asked for the speedy implementation of cashbased assistance in all targeted woredas/districts. Mr. Ging and the Somali regional authorities discussed the need to improve accountability mechanisms, including quality needs assessment and information management.