OromianEconomist

Ethiopia lifted its state of emergency on 7 August.? It was first introduced on 9 October 2016, following protests mainly by the Oromo and Amhara populations, who together account for over half of Ethiopia’s population. Both ethnic groups were protesting against the Tigray-dominated government on issues including inequality, economic marginalisation, corruption, and lack of political space.?Defence, foreign ministry and other key government posts are held by Tigrayans, who account for 6% of the country’s population.??  Protests began in the Oromia region in November 2015, following a plan to expand Addis Ababa into surrounding land owned by Oromo farmers. In July 2016, the Amhara population began protesting. ? Violence escalated in October 2016 when over 50 people were killed during an Oromo religious festival that turned into an anti-government protest. At the beginning of the state of emergency, the government promised deep reform. In July 2017, the government announced a bill that includes measures such as making Afan Oromo an official language, setting up Afan Oromo schools in Addis Ababa, and establishing a joint council with the federal government to administer the city. Many deemed the bill  insufficient.? As of August, the government has not addressed fundamental issues such as demands to open up political space, and to allow dissent and tolerance of different perspectives.?In August, people in the Oromia region held a five-day strike to commemorate protesters killed during the 2016 protests. Some sources say the strike was also in protest of a tax increase for small business owners. ??

As of late September, clashes have been taking place among Oromo and Somali groups over border demarcations. The government announced they will place federal police at roads that cross both regions and that security forces of both regions will withdraw from border locations. They also stated they will disarm civilians living in the conflict areas.? There are diverging acounts of what is causing the clashes. Oromo officials have accused the Somali  police force, the Liyu police, of staging attacks in an attempt to drive Oromos out of border areas. While the Somali regional government claim it is members within the Oromo government in conjunction with the Oromo Liberation Front, a group that have been branded as terrorists by the government of Ethiopia. Tensions have existed between the two sides for years over border demarcations and competition over resources. Another view expressed by some activists is that the situation has been orchestrated by the central government, who are using the Liyu police to divert attention away from the issue of suppression of the Oromo people, whose concerns remain unaddressed despite the removal of the state of emergency. ??? ?

Media censorship is common in Ethiopia but was further reinforced following the state of emergency, with many journalists engaging in self-censorship to avoid harassment or arrests. Since 2010, at least 75 journalists have fled the country. Access to the internet is frequently blocked and international radio signals jammed. Social media was a key factor in mobilising protesters and is since carefully monitored by authorities. ?

Latest update: 27/07/2017

Humanitarian organisations are heavily regulated in Ethiopia and may be terminated at the government’s behest.  The 2009 Charities and Societies Proclamation severely limits the activities of independent nongovernment organisations.  An NGO that receives over 10% of their funding from international sources is banned from advocacy activities, work on human rights or conflict resolution.? In April the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights was denied access to Oromia and Amhara regions to investigate government abuse against protesters. ? Insecurity at the Somali and Oromia borders have hindered WFP activities for the dispatch and distribution of food aid in July.?

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DISPLACEMENT OVERVIEW

Latest update: 03/10/2017

There are some 852,700 refugees and 1,056,700 IDPs in Ethiopia as of 20 September and 4 July respectively, more than half of whom are in the Somali region, the majority of which is in Emergency (IPC 4) levels of food insecurity.???

IDPS

Latest update: 09/10/2017

There are an estimated 1,056,738 IDPs in Ethiopia as of 4 July. 843,367 are displaced due to drought, and the remainder are displaced due to conflict. ? ? The distribution of the displaced is as follows:

Region	Number Displaced
AMHARA	8 921
TIGRAY	28 954
GAMBELLA	17 472
OROMIA	367 557
SOMALI	577 711
HARARI	3 600
AFAR	52 523

 

RECENT CONFLICT RELATED DISPLACEMENT:

Clashes on the border of the Oromia and the Somali regions have left some 45,000 households displaced, equating to some 225,000 people. ? Their needs are currently being met by the government and there is only limited information available. ?While parts of Oromia region have been affected by flooding, none coincide with the area experiencing this conflict-related displacement.  ?

REFUGEES AND ASYLUM SEEKERS

Latest update: 10/10/2017

Ethiopia hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa. There are some 883,775 refugees. 58% of refugees are under 18. As of 30 September, Gambella hosts the largest refugee population, at 397,455 refugees. ?In other regions, as of 4 July there are 212,000 in Melkadida, Somali region, and 55,700 in Assosa, Benishangul-Gumuz region, 37,000 in Jijiga, northeastern Somali region, 34,900 in Samara, Afar region, 37,800 in Shire, Tigray region, 20,000 in Addis Ababa, and 3,800 in Borena. The majority of refugees are in camps. ? Trends show the highest numbers of monthly arrivals between September and December, meaning an increase in arrivals is expected in the coming months.?

South Sudan: There are 397,455 South Sudanese refugees as of 30 September. ?There was a large influx in late 2016 following an escalation of violence in South Sudan: from September until December approximately 42,800 refugees arrived. ?

Somalia: As of 15 July, there are approximately 251,393 Somalian refugees, 6,256 of whom arrived this year as of 15 July.  88% of arrivals this year are women and children.?

Eritrea: As of 7 June, there were over 161,398 Eritrean refugees. ? 17,000 Eritreans have arrived in Ethiopia so far this year, compared with just 7,000 in all of 2016.???

Sudan: As of 7 June, 41,588 Sudanese refugees were registered. ?

Yemen: As of 7 June, 1,670 Yemeni refugees were registered. ?

Other Nationalities: There were over 5,800 refugees from other countries in Ethiopia as of 7 June. ?

RETURNEES

Latest update: 12/09/2017

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has ordered undocumented migrants from Ethiopia to leave the country in June. More than 500,000 Ethiopians are estimated to be affected by the order, over half of which could potentially return to Ethiopia. As of 31 July, 60,000 have returned. ? Human Rights Watch has warned that many are at risk of imprisonment if they are forced to return, as many fled following the anti government protests in 2015.?

 

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FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS OVERVIEW

Latest update: 03/10/2017

Some 8.5 million people are in need of food aid as a result of drought, a considerable increase from January estimates of 5.6 million. The areas most affected are the southern and southeastern pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of SNNPR, southern Oromia and southern Somali regions. In Somali region, 3.3 million people are food insecure. More than 50% of the caseload is in Korahe, Doolo, and the southern Afder zones.??? This is not expected to improve in the near future as the 2017 Belg harvest is expected to be below average in some areas.? The upcoming rains in October are also expected to be below average in some areas of the Somali region, according to Ethiopia’s National Meteorology Agency, with potentially late onset and an early finish. This would lead to a further deterioration of the food security situation.?

The prevailing drought conditions in southern and southeastern Ethiopia are due to failed Deyr/Hageya rains from October to September 2016, followed by poor Gu/Genna rains from March to June. Cumulative seasonal rainfall was up to 60% below average. This has resulted in a high animal mortality rate, a reduction in milk production, and a loss of livelihoods. Severe water and fodder shortages have negatively impacted crops and livestock. ?

Excessive livestock deaths and lack of other income earning opportunities mean that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue in the Somali region until January 2018. Areas of Amhara, Tigray, and northeastern SNNPR are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until October when the Meher harvest begins. ??

Food insecurity is driving negative coping mechanisms among the population. These include: reducing livestock herd sizes, selling remaining assets, skipping meals, begging, and increasingly, displacement in search of food. ?In Tigray region, 33% of the assessed woredas reported women and girls trading sex for food. ?

 

Map

Food Security, IDPs and Refugees

Source:

ECHO 04/07/2017

FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS

Latest update: 10/10/2017

 

Late rains together with an armyworm infestation are expected to lead to a significantly reduced harvest in October. ?Once agropastoral and pastoral households exhaust current food stocks they will face poor access to food due to to high staple food prices, reduced livestock herd sizes, and low levels of milk production from livestock.?  Staple food prices have remained high across markets in South Sudan. This is driven by economic condition such as the hyperinflaction, depreciation of local currency, as well as depleted stocks from previous poor harvests.? The Climate Prediction Center has warned of a La Nina phenomenon that could affect October, November, and December rainfall in eastern Ethiopia.? Another season of poor rainfall will limit water availability and reduce harvests. ?

Seasonal Calender, Source: Fewsnet 04/08/17

LIVELIHOODS

Latest update: 03/10/2017

 

More than 80% of Ethiopians rely on livestock and agriculture as a primary source of income and food. The recent drought has reduced production by up to 50-90% in some parts of the country, resulting in weakened purchasing power, diminished food security, and forcing many to abandon their livelihoods. In June, herd sizes were estimated to be 70% below average because of high mortality rates.?  Over 2 million animals have already died due to shortages in fodder and water. ?The remaining animals are producing increasingly less milk and there is also less meat production.?2.25 million households require livestock support.? The reduced livestock size may take three to five years to recover and this will greatly impact on household food access during this time. ?

Improved rains in August have presented an opportunity for re-planting in areas where crops were failing. Emergency seeds need to be distributed to farmers before mid-September, when the timeframe for planting ends. ?

ARMYWORMS

As of 30 August, over 600,000 hectares of maize land has been affected by fall armyworms. This accounts for 22% of all maize planted.? Six regions have been affected;  Amhara, Beninshangul-Gumuz, Gambella, Oromia, SNNPR, and Tigray.?This is a considerable increase from 19 May, when 49,000 hectares of cropland were impacted across two regions. ? Nine million small farms grow maize and tend to consume 75% as food for their family. The remainder is usually used as animal feed. Armyworms feed on maize and this outbreak threatens the livelihoods of these farmers. ? If not contained, armyworms could compromise up to 2 million hectares of Ethiopia’s crops, reducing maize production by 30% nationwide. ??  Chemical spraying and other traditional measures are underway to control the crop infestation, although the fall armyworm is highly invasive and has spread from Southern Africa to East Africa in 2017.??  There is growing concern that the outbreak will start to affect other crops such as sorghum in Afar, Amhara, Somali and Tigray Regions.?

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