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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been widely praised for introducing sweeping reforms aimed at ending political repression, writes BBC Africa editor Fergal Keane after visiting the country.
The crowd at the airport in Jimma in Ethiopia’s Oromia region was handpicked and universally rapturous.
But these were not the praise-singing party hacks who so often grace the arrivals and departures of powerful men in Africa.
Men and women, old, young and very young – beaming babies were held above the crowd – had gathered to witness the arrival of a political sensation.
“We are so very happy,” an elderly man shouted to me above the sound of the military band, “it is like a renaissance. We have waited so long for this.”
Shift from autocracy
Then Abiy Ahmed was among us, descending the steps of his plane to delighted cheers, testing the nerves of his security detail as he reached into the crowd to kiss a baby here, embrace an old man there.
I was conscious of an extraordinary fusion between the driven energy of an individual and the hope of a nation. Africa has rarely seen anyone like him.
Image captionPro-democracy activists have welcomed the changes in Ethiopia
At 42 he is the youngest leader on the continent but his impact is far greater than his age suggests.
When the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition elected him prime minister nine months ago the country, Africa’s second largest in terms of population with more than 100 million people, shifted decisively from a long period of autocracy.
He ended a 20-year conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, freed thousands of political prisoners, unfettered the media and appointed women to half the cabinet posts.
Parliament also accepted his female nominees for president and head of the supreme court.
On top of that, he asked a dissident leader to return from exile in the United States to run the electoral commission.
The pace of change has delighted pro-democracy activists and thrown more reactionary elements off balance.
Fourteen years ago, Birtukan Mideksa spent 18 months in prison as leader of an opposition party before leaving for exile in the US.
She was as surprised as most observers when Mr Abiy invited her to return and chair the National Election Board.
“Thousands, if not millions, of people paid [a heavy price] to see this kind of change in this country… to see this opening,” Ms Birtukan told me.
“To have a former opposition leader, former dissident, to lead an institution with significant independence of action… means a lot.
“For those people who paid a price in the process, it’s really significant,” Ms Birtukan added.
‘Use ideas not weapons’
But change has inevitably emphasised the significant challenges still facing Mr Abiy.
When I caught up with him at a graduation ceremony for medical students in Jimma he appealed to them to “use ideas not weapons” and to follow the example of a nation like Japan, which recovered from World War Two to build a sophisticated economy.
Key facts: Abiy Ahmed
Born to a Muslim father and a Christian mother on 15 August 1976
Speaks fluent Afan Oromo, Amharic, Tigrinya and English
Joined the armed struggle against the Marxist Derg regime in 1990
Served as a UN peacekeeper in Rwanda in 1995
Entered politics in 2010
Briefly served as minister of science and technology in 2016
Became prime minister in April 2018
Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing economies in the world but still has a vast number of unemployed young people.
This is both a reservoir of potential talent and potential dissent if Mr Abiy’s moves to liberalise the economy and tackle corruption do not succeed swiftly.
The prime minister was addressing the graduates in Jimma against a backdrop of deepening ethnic conflicts across the country.
Ethiopia has more than 80 different ethnic groups.
The divisions are old and deep rooted, but they flared up with a new intensity in the first half of last year when 1.4 million people were forced to flee ethnic conflict in the west of the country, according to the UN.
Overall, some 2.8 million people have been uprooted from their homes in recent years. The other major concern is the fighting on the borders of the Oromia and Somali regions.
Over decades, the central government used force and a whole battery of repressive legislation to quell ethnic unrest.
Predictably, this merely gave an impression of national cohesion while unaddressed grievances festered. They erupted into protest in 2016.
‘Steel in Abiy’s voice’
Demonstrations by members of the Oromo community – Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group – precipitated the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the election of Mr Abiy.
Mr Abiy is the first leader to come from the Oromo community but has stressed that he is a leader for all Ethiopians.
When I caught up with him in Jimma I asked if he was the man to unite an increasingly divided country.
He was being ushered away from the crowds by his guards but the question made him pause.
Looking around he caught my eye and shouted above the noise: “Of course I am. No doubt about it!” There was steel in the voice. And then the smile returned.
Last month, Mr Abiy established a reconciliation commission to deal with some of the issues.
This may provide an outlet for the airing of uncomfortable truths about the past but the greater challenge is the federal constitution which divides regional government along ethnic lines.
Respecting ethnic rights while fostering the idea of a nation will demand considerable political and legal sure-footedness.
Abiy’s reforms in 2018
Image captionPeople celebrated as the land border between Ethiopia and Eritrea was reopened
May – frees thousands of political detainees
June – lifts state of emergency
July – alongside the Eritrean president declares the end of war between the two nations
September – reopens land border with Eritrea
October – appoints women to half of ministerial posts
November – appoints ex-opposition leader to head electoral commission
In the Tigray region, in the north, there have been ominous stirrings.
Although Tigrayans compose only a small percentage of the population they dominated the previous government.
In recent months, prominent Tigrayans in the army, security services, as well as business figures, have been accused of human rights abuses and corruption.
Travelling in Tigray one frequently hears concerns about the alleged marginalisation of the once-powerful group.
A former communications minister, Getachew Reda, told me he thought Tigrayans were being turned into scapegoats.
It was as if only Tigrayan leaders were responsible for past abuses under the ruling coalition, he said.
Although still calling himself a friend of Mr Abiy he believes the young leader risks creating a failed state.
“He symbolises the kind of ambition, the kind of courage to storm the heavens that youth would represent.
“But he also represents the kind of tendency to gloss over things, the kind of tendency to try to telescope decades into months, years… to rush things.”
For the moment Mr Abiy has the momentum and no shortage of energy.
Image captionPrime Minister Abiy Ahmed plans to steer the nation to elections in 2020
Even in Tigray, the ordinary citizens I spoke to saw him as an inspirational figure.
Elsa Tesfaye is a small-holder farmer who lives close to the border with Eritrea and lost a brother to the war between the two nations.
For her Mr Abiy is the man who brought peace “and I thank him for that”.
‘Revivalist preacher’
She worries about ethnic divisions and whether her son – an engineering student – will be able to work in other parts of the country if the situation deteriorates.
“[The reforms] are great. But it still needs a bit of work. If ethnic conflict… and hate could be removed I would be satisfied.”
Mr Abiy is a devout Pentecostal Christian and there is something of the revivalist preacher in the way he evangelises for his vision. He has the energy, the passion and the certainty.
The question is whether he can prevent an escalation of conflicts without resorting to the repressive methods of the past, and maintain his reformist momentum up to the next elections in 2020.
Before he left Jimma I managed to speak with Mr Abiy again.
He greeted me with a traditional embrace and kiss. This was Mr Abiy being the consummate politician.
The world should look at the example of Ethiopia, he told me, to see how people can live together in peace. Given the vast numbers of displaced it seemed more a statement of ambition than reflective of any current reality.
But on the central question of reform he was adamant.
“Would anything stop you?” I asked.
“Not at all,” he replied with a vehemence that left no room for doubt.
By all standards, 2018 was #Ethiopia’s extraordinary year. Each month packed with eventful events: from the pleasing to the shocking, from the utopian to the daunting. 2018 was a year like no other! https://t.co/kP8UG8gFmo Team AS made it easy to navigate through the 12 months pic.twitter.com/LogNOSKsu2
It is the type of scenario that used to end up in coups in the old days.
But Abiy Ahmed has been doing the seemingly impossible ever since he unexpectedly became prime minister of Ethiopia in April.
He is 42-years-old, and currently Africa’s youngest leader.
There is nothing predictable about the man and how he has set about doing his job.
Ethiopia had been seen by critics as an authoritarian state that brushed off criticism and remained an implacable foe to neighbour Eritrea.
But within a few months of taking office, Mr Abiy had lifted the state of emergency, released thousands of political prisoners, allowed dissidents to return home and unblocked hundreds of websites and TV channels.
Peace with long-time foe
Just as people were digesting the dizzying changes on the domestic front, the prime minister, in the sphere of diplomatic relations, did the equivalent of making the sun rise from the west.
He ended the state of war with Eritrea by agreeing to give up disputed border territory thereby normalising relations with the long-time foe.
Image captionSahle-Work Zewde is Ethiopia’s ceremonial head of state, while Abiy Ahmed (r) holds political power
If that does not sound impressive enough, there were other changes. Ethiopia now has a female president (Sahle-Work Zewde), a female head of the Supreme Court (Meaza Ashenafi), a female head of the electoral commission (Birtukan Mideksa), and the official spokesperson of the government is a woman (Billene Aster Seyoum).
South Africa was another country which saw a major change of leadership, but the optimism that came with the accession of Cyril Ramaphosa to the presidency has fizzled out. |Click here to read the full text at BBC
Country’s parliament elects Abiy Ahmed as new leader a week after his nomination as chairman of ruling coalition.
Abiy is the first Oromo to lead Africa’s second-most populous country [File: EPA]
Ethiopia’s parliament has elected Abiy Ahmed as the new prime minister, a week after the ruling coalitionnominated him to succeed Hailemariam Desalegn.
Abiy was sworn in on Monday shortly after his election to become Africa’s second-most populous country’s 16th prime minister and the first Oromo to hold Ethiopia’s top seat.
Hailemariam resigned in February, following months of protests in the Oromia and Amhara region that led to the deaths of hundreds of people.
The protests, which initially began over land rights, but later broadened to include calls for greater political representation at the national level, met a harsh government response.
Abiy, 41, a former lieutenant-colonel in the army and head of Ethiopia‘s science and technology ministry, has a reputation as an effective orator and reformer.
‘Historic moment’
Ahmed Adam, a research associate at University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), told Al Jazeera on Monday that he believed things would change under Abiy.
“This is a very historic moment for Ethiopia and for the ruling coalition in the country. He is the first Oromo PM. This will pave the way for the stability and unity of the country,” he said.
“Abiy is a part of the establishment of course, but he’s a reformist and came from a mixed religious background with a Christian mother and a Muslim father. ”
Merara Gudina, a prominent opposition leader, expressed cautious optimism over Abiy’s election.
“What he aims to achieve depends on what his party allows him to do,” Merara said, adding that Abiy was elected by Ethiopia’s ruling party and not directly by the population through a general election.
“But still it goes without saying that a change in personalities within the leadership may bring changes in terms of bringing better ideas that may ultimately lead to national reconciliation.”
Ethiopia in February declared its second state of emergency in two years amid the ongoing protests that effectively crippled transportation networks and forced the closure of businesses.
On Saturday, Ethiopian officials said that more than 1,000 people have been detainedsince the latest emergency rule was put in place.
A statement! Lemma Megerssa, President of the #Oromia regional state, who stepped aside as chairman of the #OPDO to make Dr. Abiy Ahmed the party's candidate, showed up at the national palace where PM Dr. Abiy was welcomed by the outgoing PM Hailemariam Desaleg. #Ethiopiapic.twitter.com/sXC5jcyFXg
If I am to remember today for what it is, it won't be for the changes in which this developmental state functions, but for the 'feel good speech' & the fact that it can be possible for incoming first families not to be preceded by caskets or runaways. And this 👇😍. 📷 Fortune. pic.twitter.com/J7Gd3us8fE
As Ethiopia's new Oromo prime minister is sworn in, Mohammed Ademo from @OPride tells us 'There are two centres of power in Ethiopia today, the power of the people and the power that comes from security-military establishment' pic.twitter.com/v8PYFHm69C
#Ethiopia's problems are primarily structural. Accordingly, they need substantive political &economic reforms.Thus far , they have been wired to enable TPLF minority Tigray overlords to have a near monopoly of political power &economic resources. @Jawar_Mohammed@geoffreyyork
1/2 The security sector in #Ethiopia is political, and is a major party in the politics of economic decsion making. Any attempt to liberalise the politics & reform the economy won't succeed without reforming the culture & composition of the military & the intelligence.
#Ethiopia It's vey misleading for the #Ethiopia regime and its supporters to sell transfer of power within EPRDF from H. Desalegn to Abiy Ahmed as a "peaceful transition" involving all political actors.The underlying issues still remain unaddressed+ ruling party still in control
Abiy Ahmed has come to power following a period of intense unrest and violence.
For months now, Ethiopia has been trembling on the brink of a civil war. Anti-government protests that began in 2015 over land rights broadened into mass protests over political and human rights. The government responded with waves of arrest, punctuated by hundreds of killings. Then, last month, the government announced a six-month state of emergency.
In the middle of February, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn finally threw in the towel and resigned. For weeks, the country has been without a leader. Now, finally, a brief announcement on state television has declared that Ethiopia’s ruling coalition has voted in Abiy Ahmed as new prime minister.
But Ahmed is something of an outsider; a member of the Oromo, who – despite being the country’s largest ethic group, at 34 per cent of the population – have never held power in Ethiopia’s modern history. Living in the centre and south of Ethiopia they were forcibly incorporated into the empire during the reign of Menelik II (1889-1913). Using imported firearms, Menelik embarked on a program of military conquest that more than doubled the size of his domain. Despite their numbers, the Oromo were routinely discriminated again: being referred to by the derogatory term of “galla” which suggested pagan, savage, or even slave.
The problems of ethnicity were supposedly eliminated in 1991 when rebels of the Tigray People’s Liberation Movement swept to power in Addis Ababa. Under the brilliant, but ruthless, Meles Zenawi a new system of “ethnic federalism” was introduced. Each ethnic group was encouraged to develop local self-government, while being guaranteed representation at the centre.
But there was a strong belief that behind each party stood a representative of the Tigrayan minority, which controlled the coalition with a rod of iron.
Gradually, however, each of the four constituent parties has developed its own political culture. Abiy Ahmed emerged as a key player in what became known as “Team Lemma”, which has been steering change in recent months. The team resisted Tigrayan hegemony in order to transform EPRDF from within, while at the same time governing Oromia legitimately and serving local needs.
It would appear that this has now finally succeeded. Some cast doubt on Ahmed’s ability to lead this complex transformation, pointing out that he is well connected to the security services. Others suggest that his mixed religious background — he has a Christian mother and a Muslim father — his education, and his fluency in Amharic, Oromo, and Tigrinya as making him well qualified for the job.
*Martin Plaut is a fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London. He is the author of Understanding Eritrea and, with Paul Holden, the author of Who Rules South Africa?
Related (Oromian Economist sources) :
The announcement that the new Prime Minister of #Ethiopia would be a member of the #Oromo ethnicity was met with widespread positive news in the international media despite being seen as a way to overshadow repression towards activists by the government.https://t.co/XUxRAWQrkhpic.twitter.com/VXN2XeneqW
Irrespective of whichever media outlet’s one may read, the following five key connections are either implied or purposely made about the connection between the election of Dr. Abiy and demands of the Oromo people. And they are all wrong.
Dr. Abiy Ahmed is an Oromo, But he is not Oromo Prime Minister!
I did not like how the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed as the chairman of the EPRDF and as the Prime Minister designate of Ethiopia, pending approval by the Parliament, is being framed and set up by both local and international media and the implication of his election on the demands of the Oromo people in Ethiopia.
Irrespective of whichever media outlet’s one may read, the following five key connections are either implied or purposely made about the connection between the election of Dr. Abiy and demands of the Oromo people. And they are all wrong.
1. Dr. Abiy was not elected to represent the Oromo people. He is an Ethiopian Prime Minister representing the entirety of the Ethiopian people including the Oromo people. The Oromo people did not nominate or elect him to represent them in the Office of the Prime Minister. He is elected as an individual, possibly, representing the OPDO, the Oromo wing of the EPRDF. Therefore, it is wrong to assume that Dr. Abiy is becoming the chairman of the EPRDF and the Prime Minister of Ethiopia by representing the Oromo people.
2. Dr. Abiy was not elected to calm down and sooth the Oromo people and the Oromo protests. To begin with, the demands of the Oromo people was not to elect Dr. Abiy to the office of the prime minister. Second, it is wrong to assume that the Oromo people will be calmed down and being soothed by the election of an Oromo individual to the office of the Prime Minister unless the office Dr. Abiy represents, the Office of Ethiopian Prime Minister, responds to the demands of the Oromo people and all the demands of the #OromoProtests are addressed. In fact, the Oromo protests will continue their struggle until the political, economic and social exclusion and marginalization of the Oromo people in Ethiopia ends. The Oromo people knows he is an Oromo but he does not represent the interests of the Oromo people alone. As a Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy represents the interests of all Ethiopian people. The Oromo people will not expect either specific favor other than what he could do for all Ethiopia’s or being disappointed if he fails to deliver any of his promises. But, with Dr. Abiy in the office of the Prime Minister, the Oromo people will work with him to end those marginalization and exclusions. The same holds true about the demands of all other Ethiopian people. Simply put, the struggle will continue including by working with him to address the demands of our people for justice, equality and freedom.
3. Dr. Abiy’s success or failure as the Prime Minister is not Oromo people’s success or failure. Dr. Abiy’s success or failure as the Prime Minister is just that. It is his individual success or failure. The Oromo people will not be praised for his success nor condemned because of his failures. But, will I be, as an Oromo, happy at his success? Triple Yes! Yes! And Yes! In fact, I will do everything in my power for him to succeed to advance the causes of equality, justice and freedom in Ethiopia. I believe the Oromo people, the same as all other Ethiopians, will do the same and work hard for his success. Other than that, attributing his failure or success to the Oromo people will be totally wrong.
4. Dr. Abiy, as an individual, is not a superman to do miracle in solving Ethiopia’s multifaceted problems. Rather, his administration, the ministerial cabinet and other executive authorities he appoints, the support of progressive forces in the EPRDF, and the support his administration gets from the Ethiopian public including from those in the opposition will determine whether his administration succeeds or fails. Therefore, instead of focusing what Dr. Abiy could do or not do, let’s look into what we could do both as an individual and as group to help him and his administration bring the much needed transformative regime change in Ethiopia.
5. Dr. Abiy is not an Oromo Prime Minister. He is an Ethiopian Prime Minister. Designating him as an Oromo Prime Minister is a tacit attempt to imply that the Oromo people assumed political power in Ethiopia. That is simply wrong. The Oromo people, together with other Ethiopians, are struggling to establish the government of the people for the people by the people in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian people’s political power to elect and remove from office their representatives through democratic elections are not yet to be secured or even formally acknowledge by the current Ethiopian regime. Therefore, implying as if the election of Dr. Abiy signifies the transfer of the political power to the Oromo people is totally wrong.
I hope both the international and local media will not make these and similar mistakes as they continue to report on this issue.
OPride founder and editor, Mohammed Ademo on the symbolic significance of Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s election and what he needs to do next to inspire confidence and the need for broad-based legal and political reforms. https://t.co/kLRGFEmEac
"Although he is elected with a very strong mandate within the party & parliament, the deep state … will not be open to sweeping reforms" What next for Ethiopia after EPRDF picks Abiy Ahmed as leader? @AJENewshttps://t.co/vuYR9k1mhr
"I don't think the Oromo people are going to settle because an Oromo is occupying the palace now. It all depends on what kind of reforms [Abiy] is going to be conducting." "The Oromo people will be watching over these things…" @tselemma Full Video ⏩https://t.co/oEAQXGHc1fpic.twitter.com/sGnybid65C
Hope he is willing to hear criticism; a great leader💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽 listens to criticism!!!! We will remind Dr Abiye of his own words 🎤“states need to win over their populations by persuasion rather than coercion” https://t.co/yupdiyfaSx
![Quote: Thousands, if not millions, of people paid [a heavy price] to see this kind of change in this country](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/E7D9/production/_105035395_datapic-bm1-a6zzt-nc.png)
