Is the age of #Africa’s political ‘ big man syndrome’ nearing an end? Burundi’s turmoil points to a shifting social and political landscape. #Ethiopia. #Oromia May 21, 2015
Posted by OromianEconomist in Africa, Africa Rising, Burkina Faso.Tags: Africa, Africa's big man, Africa's cheetahs versus hippo, African Studies, Burkina Faso, Burundi, The Tyranny of Ethiopia
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Burundi’s turmoil points to a shifting social and political landscape
Clár Ní Chonghaile, The Guardian, Thursday 21 May 2015
Analysts see the upheaval in Burundi as symptomatic of a public craving for principled politics and an end to the era of the autocratic statesman
The upheaval in Burundi may bear many of the hallmarks of a classic African military coup but, for some analysts, the crisis is indicative of a newfound public hunger for good governance, and a reaction against administrations run by political strongmen who cloak repression in the trappings of democracy.
As global leaders work on the sustainable development goals (SDGs), a blueprint for governing development over the next 15 years, young people in Burundi are making their own demands, of their leaders as well as international donors.
Their appeals for democracy and abuse-free institutional processes mirror the call in SDG 16 to promote the rule of law, ensure equal access to justice, and develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions.
Burundi refugees say there is no turning back as fears grow of reprisals at home.
Burundi’s crisis began in late April after the ruling CNDD-FDD party nominated President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for a third term in the country’s June elections, despite a two-term constitutional limit. Protesters took to the streets and clashed with police.
Then, on 13 May, Major General Godefroid Niyombare told reporters that he had dismissed the president. The attempted coup was short-lived, however, and Niyombare is now on the run. Nkurunziza is back in charge, and fears of reprisals are widespread.
Rights groups say at least 20 people have been killed and more than 110,000 Burundians have fled to neighbouring countries, raising fears of a “severe humanitarian crisis”.
Some observers predict a drawn-out period of uncertainty and violence, with particular risks for opposition activists and the media. Protests continued on Wednesday, while the government said local and parliamentary elections would be delayed for a week but the presidential elections would go ahead as planned on 26 June.
Some elements of the crisis – the timing of the coup to coincide with the president’s absence at a regional summit, the fear of ethnic tensions exploding – seem to hark back to Burundi’s unstable past. But Jesper Bjarnesen, senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute, says the dynamic is different this time.
Bjarnesen visited the Burundian capital Bujumbura recently and met with young activists who style themselves “the Arusha generation”, a nod to the peace accords that, in 2005, brought an end to a 12-year civil war between Hutu rebels and the mainly Tutsi army.
For these activists, ethnicity is no more the issue than Nkurunziza himself: rather, they feel the president has violated the constitution.
“It’s about political principles,” says Bjarnesen. “That is remarkable. It’s not that long ago that ethnicity was in many ways the … defining split. What I got from [the activists] was this sense that formal politics are just not a useful medium for those not in power.”
Yolande Bouka, a researcher in conflict prevention and risk analysis at the Institute for Security Studies, says Burundi’s government has long shown a disdain for the Arusha peace accords that has chipped away at trust between political actors.
The protestors and the opponents to Nkurunziza’s third term are trying to evoke an African spring
Jesper Bjarnesen, senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute
“Should the conflict drag on and erode inter-ethnic trust … it is possible to see a flare-up of ethnic tensions,” says Bouka, adding that the international community should have acted sooner on warning signs that the authorities were cracking down on dissent after the 2010 elections.
Nkurunziza is not alone in attempting to use almost absolute political power to extend his rule. Next door, Rwanda’s president, Paul Kagame, is said to be considering another term despite a two-term limit. Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, already one of Africa’s longest serving leaders, has already changed the constitution to allow him to run again.
There are more cautionary tales. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Joseph Kabila was forced to withdraw a bill seen as an attempt to extend his term after protests in January. Nkurunziza may also be mindful of Burkina Faso’s former president, Blaise Compaoré, one of Africa’s longest serving leaders, who was forced from office after he tried to change the constitution and run for another term.
End of Africa’s ‘big men’?
The idea that the “big man” model of rule is running out of steam may be gaining traction among the continent’s leaders.
At a regional summit this week, west African heads of state discussed a proposal to limit presidential mandates. The proposal was rejected because of opposition from Gambia and Togo, where there are no term limits, Reuters reported. But the discussion did not go unnoted.
“The protestors and the opponents to Nkurunziza’s third term are trying to evoke an African spring, with Burkina Faso setting the precedent. They are trying to use public protests to end a regime that has used both legal and illegal ways of reinforcing its grip on power,” says Bjarnesen.
Burundi unrest leaves 50,000 refugees facing dire conditions in Tanzania.
Thierry Vircoulon, project director for central Africa at the International Crisis Group, says Burundi’sproblems are in the 2010 elections, which most opposition parties boycotted.
“The first mandate of President Nkurunziza was about the consolidation of his power within the ruling party, and his second mandate was about the consolidation of his grip over the institutions and the preparation of his third mandate. This is a pattern that we see in a lot of post-conflict regimes in the region,” says Vircoulon.
A former Belgian colony, Burundi is one of Africa’s poorest countries, ranking 180 out of 187 states in the 2014 UN human development index. It relies on foreign aid for half its national budget. Britain’s Department for International Development ended bilateral aid in 2012, and has been criticised by a parliamentary committee for doing so.
Bjarnesen says that while donors are in a catch-22 situation, suspending assistance will only hurt the poorest. This month, the EU said it would withhold €2m ($2.2m) of aid, while Belgium also announced a suspension of electoral aid.
“Cutting aid in itself just does not work,” says Bjarnesen. “The threat now of cutting funding to the elections, who is that serving?”
For Bjarnesen, elections now would be devastating for the opposition but perhaps palatable to international partners – a situation that encapsulates an ideological tug-of-war between the merits of stability versus true democracy.
“To a large extent, the international community would rather have some sort of elections and then relative stability rather than continued political instability with the threat of conflict,” he says.
“That’s the biggest weakness of the response from the international community: it’s so short-sighted and focused on visible symptoms … whereas what is actually keeping the status quo is this kind of structural violence that has been in place since Nkurunziza came to power.”
Bjarnesen is critical of “international lenience” towards African governments. “The argument would be these are young democracies, they need time to develop … I think that moment has passed. I don’t see any reason why you would measure democracy in Burundi against standards other than those you use in the UK or Sweden.”
Peoples Most under Threat: The Oromo, Anuak, Afars & Somali (Ogaden) and other Indigenous People are Facing Genocide in Ethiopia, the Latest Annual Report Released on 18th May 2015 by Rights Group Reveals May 21, 2015
Posted by OromianEconomist in Amnesty International's Report: Because I Am Oromo.Tags: Afars & Somali (Ogaden) and other Indigenous People are Facing Genocide in Ethiopia, Africa, African Studies, Anuak, Genocide against the Oromo, Minority Rights Groups International 2015 Report, Peoples Most under Threat: The Oromo
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Peoples under Threat is Minority Rights Group’s annual authoritative rankings table which highlights those countries around the world where the risk of mass killing is greatest. Peoples under Threat is created by compiling data on the known antecedents to genocide or mass political killing. While the individual indicators describe the current situation – what is happening – the index as a whole seeks to predict what may happen. As an early warning tool, Peoples under Threat has been widely used by UN officials and other human rights and conflict prevention practitioners. Almost all the significant episodes of civilian killing that occurred over the last year took place in countries which were near the top of, or major risers in, 2015’s Peoples under Threattable. The Peoples under Threat ranking highlights countries most at risk of genocide and mass killing. The ranking is created by compiling data on the known antecedents to genocide or mass political killing. Click on a country to view its Peoples under Threat information. The large orange number indicates the country’s position in the ranking. http://peoplesunderthreat.org/ Indigenous people at risk , Anuak, Afars, Oromo, Somalis, smaller minorities Oromo rally in London Communities at risk in Ethiopia: Anuak, Afars, Oromo, Somalis, smaller minorities
Summary
The report shows that Ethiopia ranked ninth in 2014’s Peoples under Threat index – the same position as in 2013’s index. It is one of the countries that ranked the risk for genocidal mass killing is the highest. The culprit is the government controlled by the TPLF regime.
| 2015 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 5 |
| Major armed conflict | 1 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.0013 |
| Legacy of vengeance – group grievance | 8.9 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 8.7 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.293 |
| Political Stability | -1.394 |
| Rule of Law | -0.622 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 16.38 |
Background
Ethiopia ranked ninth in 2014’s Peoples under Threat index – the same position as in 2013’s index.
How is Peoples under Threat calculated? Since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994, our ability to identify those situations most likely to lead to genocide or mass killing has improved. A number of comparative studies of the factors preceding historic episodes of political mass killing had been undertaken since the 1970s, but it was not until the 1990s that researchers pioneered quantitative longtitudinal analysis of a wide range of such factors, enabling the testing of different causal hypotheses. This research enabled the identification of those preconditions that were most likely to lead to genocide and political mass murder (politicide). Minority Rights Group International has drawn on these research fi ndings to construct the Peoples under Th reat table, although responsibility for the fi nal table is exclusively our own. Peoples under Th reat is specifi cally designed to identify the risk of genocide, mass killing or other systematic violent repression, unlike most other early warning tools, which focus on violent confl ict as such. Its primary application is civilian protection. Indicators of confl ict are included in the table’s construction, however, as most, although not all, episodes of mass ethnic or religious killing occur during armed confl icts. War provides the state of emergency, domestic mobilization and justifi cation, international cover, and in some cases the military and logistic capacity, that enable massacres to be carried out. Some massacres, however, occur in peacetime, or may accompany armed confl ict from its inception, presenting a problem to risk models that focus exclusively on current confl icts. In addition, severe and even violent repression of minorities may occur for years before the onset of armed confl ict provides the catalyst for larger scale killing. Th e statistical indicators used all relate to the state. Th e state is the basic unit of enquiry, rather than particular ethnic or religious groups at risk, as governments or militias connected to the government are responsible for most cases of genocidal violence. Formally, the state will reserve to itself the monopoly over the legitimate means of violence, so that where non-state actors are responsible for widespread or continued killing, it usually occurs with either the complicity of the state or in a ‘failed state’ situation where the rule of law has disintegrated. Certain characteristics at the level of the state will greatly increase the likelihood of atrocity, including habituation to illegal violence among the armed forces or police, prevailing impunity for human rights violations, official tolerance or encouragement of hate speech against particular groups, and in extreme cases, prior experience of mass killing. Egregious episodes of mass killing targeted principally at one group have also seen other groups deliberately decimated or destroyed. However, some groups may experience higher levels of discrimination and be at greater risk than others in any given state. Minority Rights Group International has identifi ed those groups in each state which we believe to be under most threat. (Th is does not mean that other groups or indeed the general population may not also be at some risk.) It should be noted that although these groups are most often minorities, in some cases ethnic or religious majorities will also be at risk and in relevant cases are therefore also listed in the table. In some cases, all the groups in the country are at risk of ethnic or sectarian killing. Th e overall measure is based on a basket of ten indicators. Th ese include indicators of democracy or good governance from the World Bank; confl ict data from the Heidelberg Institute for International Confl ict Research and the Center for Systemic Peace; data on the fl ight of refugees, internally-displaced persons and other populations of concern from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees; indicators of group division or elite factionalization from the Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; the US State Failure Task Force data on prior genocides and politicides; and the country credit risk classifi cation published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (as a proxy for trade openness). For citations and further information, see the notes to the table. For a fuller discussion of the methodology, see State of the World’s Minorities 2006. Based on current indicators from authoritative sources, Peoples under Threat seeks to identify those groups or peoples most under threat in 2015. http://www.minorityrights.org/13054/attachments/MRG_SWM15_PUTBrief_COMB_8.pdf
Oromia: SBO: Oduu Filannoo Wayyaanee, Caamsaa 20, 2015 May 21, 2015
Posted by OromianEconomist in Sham elections.Tags: Africa, African Studies, Because I am Oromo, Ethiopia's sham elections, SBO, SBO: Oduu Filannoo Wayyaanee, Sham elections
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Mootummaan Wayyaanee filannoo isaa Caamsaa 24, 2015 Dilbata dhufu geggeeffatuun walqabatee Oromiyaa keessatti iddoowwan Fincilli ummataa ni dhoha jedhee sodaatutti karaa ittiinan dhaamsuu danda’a jedhu humna waraanaatti dabalatee karoora biraa baafatee socho’aa jiraachuun isaa saaxilame.
Filannoon kun filannoo dimokraatawaa, bilisaa fi haqummaa kan hin qabne, ulaagaa filannoo addunyaan beekuu kan hin guutnee fi taajjabdootni idil addunyaa tokkollee kan irratti hin argamne filmaata fakkeessii fi waliin dhahaa tahuun isaa yoo beekamu, mootummaan Wayyaanee filannichaan booda diddaan ummatootaa akka hin dhalanne, addatti ammoo Oromiyaa keessatti Fincilli ummataa fi dargaggootaa ka’uu danda’a sodaa jedhuun diddaa dhalatu dhaamsuuf humna waraanaa, poolisaa fi humnoota tikaa bobbaafatee jirutti dabalee karaa ittiin diddaan kun hin babal’anne tooftaa ittiinan dhaamsa jedhu kan biraa lafa kaawwatee socho’aa jiraachuu Maddeen Oduu SBO saaxilaniiru.
Haaluma kanaan mootummaan abbaa irree fi goolessaan Wayyaanee Oromiyaa keessaa bakkoota fincilli ummataa fi dargaggootaan ka’uu danda’a jedhee sodaataa jiru Dhiha Shawaa, Baha Wallaggaa, Naqamtee fi naannoo ishee, Lixa Wallaggaa D.Doolloo fi naannoo isheetti akkuma adeemsi filannoo xumurameen naannolee kanatti mo’amneerra jedhee labsuun diddaan ummata Oromoo akka hin kaane, bakkoota biraattis fincilli ummataa fi dargaggootaan akka hin qabsiifamne ukkaamsee hambisuuf karoorfatee akka jiru maddeen SBO ifa godhanii jiran.
Filannoo kanaan walqabatee naannolee kanatti mormii ummataa dhalatuu malu tooftaa kanaan ukkaamsinaan bakkoota biratti fincilli hin dhalatu, hin babal’atu, salphaatti filannoo keenya milkii fi injifannoo paartii IHADGn xumurachuu dandeenya jechuun itti amantaan socho’aa jiraachuun isaanii saaxilameera.
Oromiyaa keessattis haa ta’u, naannolee empaayerattii hunda keessatti mootummaan Wayyaanee/IHADG filannoo kana waliin dhahee, korojoo hatee, ummatas doorsisee fi tokko shaneen walitti hidhee akkuma duraanii injifannoo kijibaa labsachuun isaa waan dirree jiru, shakkii tokkollee kan hin qabne ta’uu kan hubachiisan maddeen SBO, karoorri Oromiyaa keessatti fincila ummataa dhaamsuuf Dhiha Shawaa, Baha Wallaggaa, Naqamtee, D.Doolloo fi bakkoota biraatti baafamee jiru kan mul’isu, sagalee ummataa ukkaamsuuf shira olaanaa xaxamaa jiru ta’uun isaa akkuma jirutti ta’ee, mormitootni barcuma lama, shan ykn kudhan argatanii paarlamaa galanii teenyaan isaan gaha jechuu akka ta’e kan mul’isuu dha jedhaniiru.
Kanas ta’e sanas filannoo waliin dhahaa sirna mootummaa Wayyaanee jalatti geggeeffamuun murna shiftaa aangoo humna qawween qabate Wayyaanee aangoo irraa kaasanii sagalee ummataa, waan ummatni fedhu argamsiisuun akka hin danda’amne sabboontotni Oromoo yaada agabaastota SBOf kennaniin mul’isuun, mormitootni maqaa Oromoon jiran barcuma murtooftuu argatanii paarlamaa seenanii taa’uun rakkoo fi gidiraa sirna cunqursaa ummata Oromoo irratti barootaaf jiraate furuu akka hin dandeenye, kaleessas akka hin danda’amiin addeessaniiru.
Kanaaf ummatni Oromoo, ka’imman Oromoo waca filannoo kanaan dahatee deemaa jiruun osoo hin dagamne, keessaa fi alatti irree isaa gamteeffachuun bilisummaa fi mirga abbaa biyyummaa isaa dhugoomfachuuf qabsoo isaa caalaatti jabeeffatee, FDG bifa gara garaan deemaa jirus daran babal’isee finiinsuu akka qabu sabboontotni Oromoo dhaamsa isaanii dabarsanii jiru.
Addi Bilisummaa Oromoo (ABO)n filannoo Wayyaanee kana ilaalchisuun ibsa Caamsaa 18,2015 baaseen, Filannoon Caamsaa 24, 2015nitti baallamamee jiru Wayyaanee aangomsuun alatti faydaa biraa ummatootaaf argamsiisu tokkollee akka hin qabne ifa gochuun, ummatni Oromoo haqa kana hubatuun furaan dhibdee isaa qabsoon malee kan hin argamne tahuu beekee, filannoo kijibaan akka hin dagamne, mirgaa fi bilisummaa isaa qabsoo isaan gonfachuuf jabaatee akka warraaqu ibsa kanaan yaamicha isaa dabarsee jira.
http://gadaa.net/FinfinneTribune/2015/05/sbo-oduu-filannoo-wayyaanee-caamsaa-20-2015/
Oromo: Oromo Federalist Congress: Obbo Gebru G/M Utura Electrifies Voters on the OFC/Medrek Campaign Trail May 21, 2015
Posted by OromianEconomist in Sham elections.Tags: Ob. Gebru G/M Utura Electrifies Voters on the OFC/Medrek Campaign Trail, Oromo Federalist Congress, Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) Criss-crossing Oromia with Huge Turnouts at Campaign Rallies
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Oromoon Obbo Gabru G/M Uturaa waliin lafa sochoosuun degersa Kongiresa Federaalawaa Oromoo qaban haala o’aan muli’san.
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